Santosh Anagol

Santosh Anagol (2022), Long runs of homozygosity are correlated with marriage preferences across global population samples, Human Biology.

Abstract: Children of consanguineous unions carry long runs of homozygosity (ROH) in their genomes, due to their parents’ recent shared ancestry. This increases the burden of recessive disease in populations with high levels of consanguinity and has been heavily studied in some groups. However, there has been little investigation of the broader effect of consanguinity on patterns of genetic variation on a global scale. Here, we collect published genetic data and information about marriage practices from 396 worldwide populations and show that preference for cousin marriage has a detectable effect on the distribution of long ROH in these samples, increasing the expected number of ROH longer than 10Mb by a factor of 1.5 (P=2.3 × 10−4). Variation in marriage practice and consequent rates of consanguinity is therefore an important aspect of demographic history for the purposes of modeling human genetic variation. However, marriage practices explain a relatively small proportion of the variation in ROH distribution and consequently the ability to predict marriage practices from population genetic samples (for example of ancient populations) is limited.

Santosh Anagol, Vimal Balasubramaniam, Tarun Ramadorai (2020), Learning from Noise: Evidence from India’s IPO Lotteries, forthcoming, Journal of Financial Economics.

Abstract: We study a natural experiment in which 1.5 million investors participate in allocation lotteries for Indian IPO stocks. Randomized IPO gains cause winning investors to increase applications to future IPOs and substantially increase portfolio trading volume in non-IPO stocks relative to lottery losers; the effects are symmetrically negative for experienced losses. Investors who have received multiple past IPO allocations show smaller responses, suggesting learning/selection moderates responses to noise shocks. The evidence is most consistent with investors learning about their own ability from experienced noise, drawing inferences about their skill from luck.

Santosh Anagol and Ankur Pareek (2018), Should Business Groups be in Finance? Evidence from Indian Mutual Funds, forthcoming, Journal of Development Economics. .

Abstract: A primary risk associated with business groups entering the financial sector is that groups will misallocate capital to own group firms, hurting investors and economic development. We study this issue in the context of business group owned mutual funds in India, where business groups have been present for over twenty years, and we can observe capital allocation decisions monthly. Business-group owned funds do not over-weight member firms, nor do they prop up member firm stocks or earn excess returns on their member firm investments. Business-group funds have an advantage when they focus on industries where the group operates, although we cannot distinguish whether this is due to insider trading versus (legal) specialization. Current regulations appear sufficient to prevent capital misallocation in member firms, but monitoring of investments in related sectors seems warranted.

Santosh Anagol, Tarun Ramadorai, Vimal Balasubramaniam (2018), Endowment Effects in the Field: Evidence from India’s IPO Lotteries, Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming.

Santosh Anagol (2017), Adverse Selection in Asset Markets: Theory and Evidence from the Indian Market for Cows, Journal of Development Economics, 129 (), pp. 58-72.

Santosh Anagol, Vijay Marisetty, Renuka Sane, Eshwar Venugopal (2017), On the Impact of Regulating Commissions: Evidence from the Indian Mutual Funds Market, World Bank Economic Review, 31 (), pp. 241-270.

Abstract: Commissions-motivated agents have historically helped the development of many markets, but research suggests brokers motivated by commissions sometimes steer consumers towards inappropriate products. This issue is particularly important in household financial markets where consumers may be unable to evaluate products on their own. While reforms attempting to limit commission payments have been undertaken worldwide, little research has evaluated the impact of these reforms. We study a major Indian investor protection reform that attempted to reduce commissions tied to mutual fund sales by banning the distribution fees that mutual funds had previously earmarked for commissions. We analyze the policy impact by comparing funds charging high versus low distribution fees pre-reform and find no evidence that the reform itself reduced fund flows. We argue that the most plausible explanation is that the Indian asset management industry maintained substantial commissions to brokers through other revenue sources apart from the banned distribution fees.

Santosh Anagol, Shawn Cole, Shayak Sarkar (2017), Understanding the Advice of Commissions-Motivated Agents: Evidence from the Indian Life Insurance Market, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 99 (1), pp. 1-15.

Abstract: We conduct a series of field experiments to evaluate the quality of advice provided by life insurance agents in India. Agents overwhelmingly recommend unsuitable, strictly dominated products that provide high commissions to the agent. Agents cater to the beliefs of uninformed consumers, even when those beliefs are wrong. We also find that agents appear to focus on maximizing the amount of premiums (and therefore their commissions) that customers pay, as opposed to focusing on how much insurance coverage customers need. A natural experiment requiring disclosure of commissions for a specific product results in agents recommending alternative products with high commissions but no disclosure requirement. A follow-up agent survey sheds light on the extent to which poor advice reflects both the commission incentives and agents’ limited product knowledge.

Santosh Anagol, Dean Karlan, Alvin Etang (2017), Continued Existence of Cows Disproves Central Tenets of Capitalism?, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 65 (), pp. 583-618.

Abstract: We examine the returns from owning cows and buffaloes in rural India. With labor valued at market wages, households earn large, negative median annual returns from holding cows and buffaloes, at −293% and −65%, respectively. Making the stark assumption of labor valued at zero, median returns are then −7% for cows and +17% for buffaloes (with 51% and 45% of households earning negative returns for cows and buffaloes, respectively). Why do households continue to invest in livestock if economic returns are negative, or are these estimates wrong? We discuss reasons why we may be underestimating returns and also, if the estimates are accurate, reasons why labor and milk market failures and social norms may still lead to persistent livestock investments.

Santosh Anagol and Thomas Fujiwara (2015), The Runner-Up Effect, Journal of Political Economy, 124 ().

Abstract: Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second-place candidates are substantially more likely than close third-place candidates to run in, and win, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance, this is the effect of being labeled the runner-up. Selection into candidacy is unlikely to explain the effect on winning subsequent elections, and we find no effect of finishing in third place versus fourth place. We develop a simple model of strategic coordination by voters that rationalizes the results and provides further predictions that are supported by the data.

Santosh Anagol, Shawn Cole, Shayak Sarkar, “Comparative Regulation of Market Intermediaries: Insights from the Indian Life Insurance Market”. In Modernizing Insurance Regulation, edited by, (Wiley, 2014)

Abstract: This chapter considers regulation of the sales of insurance as a means for reducing the amount of misselling that occurs. After providing background information on the life insurance markets in India and the United States, the chapter focuses on the regulation of commissions disclosure in the two countries. The chapter analyzes the more general issue of regulation of advice, focusing on the three tiers of legal duty (caveat emptor, suitability, and fiduciary) present in U.S. law. It summarizes the discussion of quality of advice in the U.S. and India, and discusses two examples of intermediaries, agents and brokers, which typically refer to slightly different relationships in the American context. The chapter presents experimental evidence on how quality of advice responded to consumer sophistication, preferences, and needs, in addition to market competition. The evidence is used for presenting the recommendations regarding the emerging Indian standards.